The probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year on Polymarket has dropped to 32%, hitting a new all-time low.

BlockBeats News, July 18th, as the U.S. Senate remains deadlocked on the CLARITY Act, the prediction market Polymarket has lowered the probability of the bill passing by the end of 2026 to 32%, marking a new low since the launch of the prediction market in January this year.

Data shows that the probability has dropped by about 30 percentage points since the market's launch and has significantly retreated from the high of 82% reached in February this year. The market believes that as the Senate legislative calendar tightens and bipartisan support has not been reached, the likelihood of the bill passing this year continues to decrease.

Reports indicate that the biggest controversy remains the two parties' failure to reach a consensus on ethical provisions related to government officials' conflicts of interest in digital assets. Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego has explicitly stated that if the bill does not include bipartisan-supported ethical provisions, he will not support the bill in the Senate vote.

The CLARITY Act aims to establish a regulatory framework for the U.S. digital asset market, clarifying the regulatory boundaries between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Several industry experts testified at a House hearing, stating that the bill would help end "enforcement-style regulation" and provide the digital asset industry with long-term, stable regulatory rules. With the U.S. Congress set to enter its August recess, market expectations for the bill to be legislated this year continue to wane.