A new account has placed a buy order on the prediction market for the US to launch a military invasion against Iran.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a new account has invested $5.6k in "Yes" on the question "Will the US launch a military invasion against Iran by 2027?", with an average buy-in probability of 23.8%. The current probability of "Yes" is 22.5%.

The US has been expanding its airstrikes on Iran for several days, targeting not only military facilities but also bridges, ports, and energy infrastructure, and has re-imposed a naval blockade. The US military has currently deployed at least 19 warships in the Arabian Sea, including two aircraft carriers and an amphibious assault ship carrying over a thousand Marines, with hundreds of military aircraft active in the Middle East.

On the 16th, Reuters reported that Trump has discussed with advisors the deployment of ground forces to seize control of Iran's oil hub on Khark Island, and three US officials have described the recent airstrikes as a "battlefield shaping operation" to potentially pave the way for a larger action. However, a full-scale invasion still faces high casualties, domestic anti-war sentiments, and midterm election pressures. Trump's advisors estimate that even just to forcefully open the Strait of Hormuz could require tens of thousands of ground troops. Ground invasion plans are now openly being discussed.

Account:
0xa4448e9e666695b5aa2a8e46e6da71feb9c889e3

Total Investment: $5.6k
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