Lianxin has a 55% Chance of Becoming an Apple Memory Chip Supplier, with the Latter Seeking Approval from the Trump Administration

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, the current market probability of "Will Apple acquire CXMT memory chips in 2026?" being "Yes" is 55%.

CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) has been recognized by multiple foreign media outlets as the world's fourth-largest DRAM supplier. The company opened online and offline subscriptions on July 16 and is scheduled to be listed on the Shanghai Sci-Tech Innovation Board on July 27. Based on the post-issue total share capital, the issue price corresponds to a market value of approximately 579.2 billion yuan at the time of listing; the related prediction market "CXMT IPO closing market value" has priced the probability of exceeding 400 billion yuan at 99%.

The Financial Times reported on June 27 that facing AI data center expansion driving up memory prices, Apple is seeking approval from the Trump administration to purchase CXMT memory chips and has been in touch with the U.S. Department of Commerce and other government officials.

The current point of contention is that even if Apple's acquisition of ChangXin has cost and supply chain motivations, it still needs to navigate U.S. regulatory approval, political pressure, and supply chain compliance risks.
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