Viewpoint: ChangXin Semiconductor's DRAM Market Share Expected to Reach 11% by 2028, U.S. Equipment Restrictions Drive Differentiation and Catch-up Opportunity

BlockBeats News, July 16th - Counterpoint Research Director Hwang Minsung pointed out that a 15% global DRAM market share is the long-term survival baseline for CXMT. Falling below this level would repeat the downturn in 2008 when Taiwanese DRAM manufacturers slipped to a 3% market share due to the inability to cover next-generation fab investments. CXMT currently holds a global DRAM bit shipment market share of around 9%, with a target to increase it to 11% by 2028. The funds raised in this IPO will be invested in next-generation G5 process technology, HBM3 high-bandwidth storage R&D, and capacity expansion. The company plans to increase its monthly capacity from the current 320,000 wafers to 420,000 wafers by 2027, double by 2030, and triple by 2035. The proportion of LPDDR5 and DDR5 in total output is expected to reach about 75%, with DRAM for PCs and servers already being supplied to global customers.

Counterpoint outlined four key post-IPO focus variables:

HBM mass production yield and revenue ramp-up progress (benefiting from Huawei's Ascend AI chip expansion, with HBM revenue potential of about $2 billion by 2028);

Ability to secure large-scale procurement contracts from global customers outside of China (Apple's supply still depends on approval);

Intensified trade conflicts that may trigger additional equipment export controls;

Whether the medium to long-term market share can reach 20% in bit and revenue respectively.

Neil Shah pointed out that while US restrictions on CXMT's equipment exports pose constraints, "ironically, this may instead drive CXMT to surpass traditional giants on a differentiation path with vertical channel transistors and wafer-to-wafer bonding, as the latter often delay technological innovation to protect returns on existing equipment investments."