Citrini: Predicts Global DRAM Shortage to Reach 28.7EB by 2030, Memory Market Entering Long-term Supply-Demand Squeeze Cycle

BlockBeats News, July 16th, Market research firm Citrini Research's latest forecast predicts that by 2030, the global DRAM market will still face a significant supply gap, estimated at 28.7EB, representing about 18% of that year's total demand, compared to this year's global total capacity of around 40EB.

According to data shared by Citrini's researcher Zephyr, the global DRAM (including HBM) demand is expected to reach 157.5EB by 2030, with a supply capacity of only about 128.8EB; of which, conventional DRAM will be the biggest bottleneck, with estimated supply of around 91EB per year, while demand is as high as 120EB, causing the supply gap ratio to expand from the current 18% to around 25%.

The report emphasizes that even with continuous expansion by Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Chinese manufacturers, additional capacity may still be rapidly absorbed by the surging demand from AI. The core of the supply-demand imbalance lies in the AI infrastructure boom, as large model training inference and HBM become the core of AI accelerators, thereby boosting the demand for traditional server DRAM. Under tight balance, the DRAM average selling price (ASP) may remain at a high level in the long term, expected to range from $1.5-2 per Gb, putting continued pressure on server, PC, and consumer electronics memory costs.