Opinion: Half of S&P 500 Companies May Lose All Investment Value in the Next 5 to 10 Years, AI Bubble Theory Completely Nonexistent

BlockBeats News, July 15th, 22V Research AI Macro Nexus Research Director Jordi Visser issued a warning: The "instantaneous competition" brought by AI is rapidly eroding the moats of traditional enterprises. In the next 5 to 10 years, half of the companies in the S&P 500 index may completely lose their investment value and become targets similar to today's Ford Motor Company, deemed "irrelevant." Taking the current challenges faced by Salesforce and Adobe as an example, the entire valuation of companies is built on the premise of how long the moat can be maintained. However, AI is causing competition to appear out of thin air and evolve rapidly, potentially causing the barriers of many publicly listed companies to collapse overnight.

At the same time, Jordi strongly refuted the current market's "AI bubble theory"—Samsung is expected to achieve a profit of $217 billion this year, exceeding the total accumulated profits of the past 40 years; Nvidia's valuation is trading at a ten-year low, and its high growth has completely absorbed the high valuation. The demand for computing power is fundamentally different from oil demand: the former is experiencing exponential growth, while the latter is only experiencing linear growth. Currently, the remaining fulfillment obligations of super-scale cloud businesses amount to $2 trillion, with no idle capacity available. The "mid-term AI growth slowdown" that began at the end of May has already ended. Once consumer intelligent agents achieve a breakthrough later this year, allowing users to engage in free-flowing dynamic workflow interactions through voice, their computing power consumption will be 20 to 30 times the current level, followed by fully autonomous driving and humanoid robots, bringing forth an endless flood of computing power.

Jordi further pointed out that the traditional macro analysis framework has completely failed. 99.9% of macro strategists have not truly used AI, only using it to polish emails, making it impossible for them to understand the disruptive power of AI—"If you don't use it, you simply cannot comprehend that its IQ is already above 140, surpassing interdisciplinary scholars."

At the allocation level, Jordi suggests that ordinary investors allocate about 10% of their funds to top digital assets and cutting-edge AI targets, with young investors able to go as high as 20%; specific targets are bullish on Nvidia, MicroVision, Littelfuse, as well as data center hardcore infrastructure companies like Caterpillar and Modine Manufacturing.