Preview: US June CPI Data to be Released Today at 8:30 PM

BlockBeats News, July 14th: The U.S. Department of Labor will announce the U.S. June CPI data today at 20:30 (Beijing time). The data includes the June Non-Seasonally Adjusted CPI YoY (prior 4.20%, expected 3.80%), Seasonally Adjusted CPI MoM (prior 0.5%, expected -0.1%), as well as the June Seasonally Adjusted Core CPI MoM and Non-Seasonally Adjusted Core CPI MoM. This may trigger market volatility.

Fed Governor Waller emphasized the significance of today's CPI. Waller stated that if future data indicates that the inflation rate remains well above the 2% target, the Fed may need to raise rates "in the near term." He described the current monetary policy as being at a "crossroads." The direction will be determined by new information such as the CPI report released on Tuesday. If the data shows an adverse trend, the Fed is currently in a phase where it should not "slack off."

"Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos stated that economists expect last month's decline in energy prices to drag down the overall CPI for June. However, for the Fed, core indicators are more important at present. Core CPI is expected to be close to May's 0.21% (MoM); subsequently, the market's focus will shift to PPI and how the PPI trend may hint at future PCE.

Investinglive analyst Eamonn Sheridan suggested that the U.S. June Consumer Price Index is expected to decrease by 0.2% month-on-month, marking the first decline since the pandemic began, driven entirely by a 15% drop in gasoline prices from mid-May to the end of June. The annualized inflation rate is expected to ease from 4.2% in May to 3.8%. Core CPI is projected to rise by 0.2% month-on-month, with the annual core inflation rate expected to dip slightly from 2.9% in May to 2.8%.