SemiAnalysis Analyst: YMTC's HBM Technology Lags Behind Top Players by 3 to 4 Years

BlockBeats News, July 14th, Semiconductor analyst Ray Wang stated in a CNBC interview yesterday that the demand for HBM in 2026 is very strong. As a result, Samsung and SK Hynix have been continuously shifting their wafer capacity to HBM, reducing their investment in ordinary DRAM, even though the current price profit of ordinary DRAM is higher.

Ray Wang believes that in a situation where the HBM market is supply-constrained, both Korean manufacturers will convert all HBM production into profit. Therefore, Samsung gaining HBM market share does not necessarily mean that SK Hynix's interests are compromised. The limiting factor is wafer capacity, not market demand.

Regarding the upcoming listing of ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Ray Wang mentioned that the company has captured about 10% of the DRAM market share (in terms of bits), which is solid in a rapidly growing market. However, the company is about three years behind in process technology and three to four years behind in HBM.

Ray Wang believes that most of the additional supply will arrive in the second half of 2027, with more supply in 2028. However, he still thinks that the supply will be insufficient in 2028, only slightly easing compared to 2027.