Hormuz Strait Closed Again, Oil Sector Forecast with 91% Accuracy Predicts Crude Oil Price to Hit an All-Time High This Year

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a clever money bet $281 on "Will crude oil hit an all-time high by December 31st?" with an average buy-in probability of 10.0%. The current probability for "Yes" is 14.5%.

0xff06e8c9 bet $281 and is most correlated to the Oil sector in this market, with a net profit of $2500. Out of 11 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 10/11 (91%), with 5 trades having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95.

On the 12th, Reuters reported that oil prices surged over 3% after the US-Iran new round of clashes, with Brent rising to $78.35 per barrel and WTI to $73.62 per barrel. Iran expanded its attacks to Qatar, UAE, and other Gulf countries, prompting a US counterstrike, affecting shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz. Today, Reuters reported that escalating Gulf tensions drove Brent up 4.1% to $79.11 per barrel; the Strait of Hormuz carries about a fifth of global oil shipments, facing uncertainty in transport after US-Iran strikes.

On the 12th, Reuters noted ship tracking data showing only 6 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, hitting a five-week low. Today, the Financial Times cited IEA data indicating that while supply's recovering in June, it remains below pre-war levels, causing diesel and refined oil price increases; Russia's temporary diesel export ban is affecting fuel supply.

Note: Based on past trading behavior, the trader is not necessarily betting on the actual event outcome but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss at a particular time after opening a position.

Account:
0xff06e8c95b984f236a08be2c4b9909be306c2f60
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN