According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a new account has wagered $4.3k on "Will the U.S. officially confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life by September 30?" with an average buy-in probability of 4.1%. The current probability of a "Yes" outcome is 4.0%.
Over the past week, the Trump administration appointed Harvard astrophysicist Avi Loeb to lead a new UAP Scientific Advisory Board. The media reports that the new scientific advisory board will assist in assessing the national security implications of UAPs and promote transparency. However, NASA and defense-related agencies have publicly stated that no credible evidence of extraterrestrial life or technology has been found.
The market's probability of "Will Trump declassify new UFO files" surged from around 50% to 90% within a day. AP reported that the Trump administration will promote the new UAP Scientific Advisory Board and expedite the document disclosure process. Coupled with the previous pace of document releases, this has further strengthened the market's anticipation of "more UFO files being released soon." However, this cannot be directly extrapolated to "official U.S. confirmation of the existence of extraterrestrial life."
Account:
0x7a852f8e891fc9baf2d79c78038ee7026a47fa91
Total Wager: $4.3k
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