Bitunix Analyst:BTC Breaks$63K and Challenges$64K—the Market Is Trading"Manageable Risk,"Not Risk Gone
BlockBeats News, July 10th, Global markets continue to price around three synchronized threads: Fed institutional reform, the US AI capex race, and Middle East geopolitical uncertainty.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has officially unveiled five reform working groups covering core areas — inflation, the balance sheet, economic data, productivity, and policy communication — while bringing in leaders from the tech industry, academia, and business. This means what markets need to watch going forward is not just interest-rate policy, but whether the Fed's decision-making framework itself is gradually changing — including dilution of forward guidance, redefinition of economic data, and adjustments to balance-sheet management. Future policy uncertainty could be materially higher than in recent years.
On another front, AI industry capex continues to expand. OpenAI has launched its GPT-5.6 series, Micron announced that its US investment will be raised to more than $250 billion, and Meta has publicly denied any compute over-capacity — arguing that leased compute retains real commercial value. Together, these signals show that mega-cap tech continues to invest in AI infrastructure, keeping AI as a primary destination for global capital.
Geopolitically, the US-Iran conflict remains in a state of "military confrontation alongside technical negotiation." While both sides continue exchanging military action and the ceasefire is functionally symbolic at this point, technical talks have not been terminated and the US has yet to fully restart military operations. Oman has publicly opposed transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz — reflecting that key parties are still trying to preserve energy transport order and reduce the probability of full-scale conflict. What markets are trading now is not peace itself, but the prospect that global energy supply chains can maintain basic function in the near term.
Deutsche Bank has also noted that the structure by which the US attracts foreign capital is shifting — from "buying Treasuries" toward "buying US equities" — meaning that dollar stability is becoming increasingly dependent on the AI cycle rather than on traditional safe-haven demand. If this trend continues, global capital flows will further concentrate in high-growth tech assets, while volatility in both the dollar and risk assets could also rise in tandem.
In crypto, Bitcoin broke the $63,000 resistance zone yesterday, driving approximately $79.5 million in short liquidations over the past 24 hours and briefly testing $64,000. That $64,000 level remains the most important near-term resistance: a successful hold would suggest that risk appetite has room to improve further, while a failed breakout would call for caution around profit-taking-driven volatility. On balance, the market is not rising because negatives have disappeared — rather, it is recalibrating the risk premium on various assets against the backdrop of institutional reform, AI capex expansion, and geopolitical risk that has not spiraled fully out of control.
