Middle East Escalation Leads to Sharp Decline in Likelihood of Hormuz Peacefulness

In the prediction market Polymarket, 4 clever investors have placed a bet on "Will traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by July 31, 2026?" They invested $16.3k in "Yes," with an average buy-in probability of 20.6%. The current probability for "Yes" is 4.5%. Investor 0x8c66e28f put in $5.5k, and the most relevant category to this market is Iran, with a category n