Trump Orders Attack, Smart Money Invests $14,000 Believing Nuclear Deal Won't Happen Soon

According to PolyBeats data, in the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money has placed a $14.7k bet on "Will the US and Iran reach a final nuclear agreement by August 31, 2026?" with an average buy probability of 78.0% and the current probability of "yes" at 22.0%.

Another participant, tourists, has also bet $14.7k and is most active in the Geopolitics category, with a net profit of $182k in this category. Out of 294 settled trades in this category, their win rate is 189/294 (64%), with 50 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701-$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $6.1k.

The negotiations between the US and Iran on the final nuclear agreement are transitioning from a "60-day window" to crisis management. On the 6th, Reuters reported that Trump stated the US would either reach an agreement with Iran or "complete the mission," indicating no public signs of progress towards lasting peace in the previous round of indirect talks. On the 7th, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi further stated that as long as the US threat continues, negotiations for a final agreement will not begin. The current dispute between the two parties not only involves verification, uranium enrichment, and sanction relief but also concerns whether formal negotiations for a final agreement can begin, influenced by military threats and compliance with interim agreements.

On the 8th, Reuters reported that Trump announced the end of the interim agreement and the US subsequently launched a new round of strikes against Iran; on the same day, the Associated Press reported that mediators were still trying to save the agreement, but the US and Iran were accusing each other of breaching maritime operations and nuclear issues. The Wall Street Journal reported on the 8th that the US revoked key waivers allowing Iran to sell oil, which was originally a significant economic incentive for Iran's participation in the agreement.

Note: Based on their past trading profile, the trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event and may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behavior after opening a position at a certain point.

Account:
0xc6dd722558dbfbd8fa780efcbe819ed8c6604b9f

Total Investment: $14.7k
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