The whole world saw Cristiano Ronaldo cry, but Polymarket believes he hasn't cried enough.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, after Portugal was eliminated by Morocco in the 2022 World Cup, a global image of Cristiano Ronaldo walking alone into the player tunnel in tears was widely circulated. In the 2024 European Championship against Slovenia, he also broke down on the spot after missing a penalty in extra time. For many fans, the question of whether "Cristiano Ronaldo will cry in his last World Cup" is a farewell scene that will happen sooner or later.

It is for this reason that since the start of this World Cup, the probability on Polymarket of "Cristiano Ronaldo crying at the World Cup" has long remained around 70%. The market once assumed: as long as Portugal is eliminated, it is hard to imagine the 41-year-old Ronaldo not shedding tears in his final World Cup performance.

A few hours ago, Portugal lost 0-1 to Spain, and nearly all global media outlets have framed this match as an emotional farewell. ESPN described his World Cup dream as "ending in tears"; media outlets such as The Independent, New York Post, etc., directly stated that he "wept" or "left the field in tears"; Reuters' photo illustration also used the caption "teary departure". On social media, this defeat was quickly packaged as Cristiano Ronaldo's tearful moment of farewell in his World Cup career.

However, on Polymarket, the story took a completely different turn. After the match, the probability of "Cristiano Ronaldo indeed crying" declined instead of rising, dropping to around 20% at one point; as of now, the trading volume on this market has exceeded $5 million and has entered a dispute process after multiple "no" outcomes were submitted.

The disagreement stems from the rules themselves: this market does not judge whether Ronaldo is sad, nor does it assess whether the media can use "tears" to describe his farewell. The rule requires that during this World Cup, when Ronaldo is on the field or in the bench area, a real photo or video must "clearly show visible tears on his face" for it to settle as a "yes".

While the whole world is using "tears" to depict Ronaldo's farewell, Polymarket is only focusing on every frame of Ronaldo's expression in front of the screen: is there clearly visible tears on his face in the image?