Tom Lee: Expects U.S. Stocks to Rally in July, S&P 500 Could Reach 8,000 Points Within a Year
BlockBeats News, July 6th - Tom Lee, Chairman of the largest Ethereum treasury BitMine, stated in an interview with CNBC that he expects a stronger performance in the U.S. stock market in July. He believes this is due to the market valuation being more reasonable than before, and investor sentiment has not reached an excessively bullish state. July will mark the beginning of the second-quarter earnings season, with corporate earnings in the first quarter significantly outperforming expectations. The current market P/E ratio is about 1.1 percentage points lower than in January. He expects second-quarter earnings to once again exceed expectations, leading to a further reduction in market valuation and creating room for P/E ratio expansion. Therefore, he believes July will be a month of stronger stock performance.
Regarding whether the S&P 500 Index can reach 8,000 points within the year, Tom Lee expressed confidence in this target. He mentioned that 8,000 points roughly correspond to a 2026 EPS of $400, with a P/E ratio of around 20. However, he believes this earnings expectation is conservative, and the P/E ratio multiple could reach 22 times or higher. This indicates that the upside potential by the end of the year could even reach 8,400 to 8,800 points.
However, Tom Lee also mentioned that from now until the end of the year, the market may experience an adjustment that feels like a "bear market," possibly occurring between August and October, rather than July. Many fund managers are currently underperforming their benchmarks, with only 23% of fund managers outperforming the broad market growth index, marking a five-year low. Therefore, there may be more buy-the-dip demand in July. Tom Lee added that the decline from February to April this year, although only about 7%, has already given a bear market-like feeling. Later in the year, factors such as the new Fed framework and the gradual unlocking of SpaceX stock may test the market.
