Former President Trump has asked FIFA to “correct” the red card suspension, after which four sharp bettors believe the US will advance to the quarterfinals.

According to Predict.fun, on the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart money accounts have collectively put in $13.5k on the "United States vs. Belgium: Advancing Team" outcome, with an average buy probability of 52.8%. The current probability for "United States" is 53.5%.

Account 0x65018f9f has invested $48, with the most relevant market category being the FIFA World Cup, which has a net profit of $826k. Out of 34 settled transactions in this category, the account has a win rate of 23/34 (68%), with 20 transactions where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.451-$0.6), the median of historical investment amounts is $34.4k.

Account 0x620c9b16 has invested $9.7k, with the most relevant market category being the FIFA World Cup, which has a net profit of $129k. Out of 27 settled transactions in this category, the account has a win rate of 20/27 (74%), with 19 transactions meeting the buy and sell price criteria. Within a similar cost range ($0.451-$0.6), the median of historical investment amounts is $9.6k.

Account 0x70118715 has invested $2.5k, with the most relevant market category being the FIFA World Cup, which has a net profit of $13.0k. Out of 26 settled transactions in this category, the account has a win rate of 21/26 (81%), with 14 transactions meeting the buy and sell price criteria. Within a similar cost range ($0.451-$0.6), the median of historical investment amounts is $214, and the current investment is 11.7 times that median.

Account 0x8b4bca1d has invested $1.2k, with the most relevant market category being the FIFA World Cup, which has a net profit of $17.1k. Out of 45 settled transactions in this category, the account has a win rate of 42/45 (93%), with 2 transactions meeting the buy and sell price criteria. Within a similar cost range ($0.501-$0.55), the median of historical investment amounts is $5.1k.

The round of 32 match between the United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina took place on July 1, with the United States winning 2-0 to advance. Balogun was shown a red card for a serious foul on a Bosnian defender. As per World Cup rules, a direct red card usually results in an automatic one-match suspension, meaning Balogun was supposed to miss tomorrow's round of 16 match against Belgium.

However, ABC reported on July 5 that Trump had called the FIFA president last week to request a review of Balogun's red card suspension. After FIFA decided to delay the suspension, Trump took to social media to thank FIFA for "doing the right thing" and correcting a "major injustice."

Regarding FIFA's decision, Belgium, the next opponent for the United States, deemed the ruling highly unfair. The Belgian FA stated that they are exploring all potential options to uphold the rights of the participating teams and the principles of fair competition. The Guardian also reported that Belgium has lodged an appeal, and UEFA criticized the decision as "incomprehensible and unjustifiable."

Next up, the United States will face Belgium at Seattle's stadium on July 7, 8:00 Beijing time. For the United States, Balogun's return directly restores a key forward; for Belgium, this is not just about tactical variables but also about fairness controversies.

Note: Based on their trading profile, the trader does not necessarily believe in the actual outcome of events and may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss activities after opening positions at some point in time.

Accounts:
0x65018f9fc473f6e920b8929a375d39c26a461220
0x620c9b16ce0da5f27f6e33e3fd1c3ef214934bae
0x701187150980c2421bc3c87a74dbdef31d75c6da
0x8b4bca1d794779e66e023d44391b2a86c5ab541b

Total Investment: $13.5k
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