Institution: Bitcoin's Deviation from the US Stock Market Trend May Be Just a Temporary Phenomenon

BlockBeats News, July 5th. Despite the continuous all-time highs in the US stock market, Bitcoin has shown a relatively weak performance this year. However, asset management firm Hashdex and Charles Schwab both believe that this divergence will not persist in the long term.

Hashdex Chief Investment Officer Samir Kerbage stated that currently, market funds are flowing more towards themes such as AI infrastructure, IPOs, and interest rate trading rather than digital assets. He pointed out that this reflects a change in fund allocation rather than a deterioration in the fundamentals of the crypto industry. He noted that stablecoin trading volume in the first half of this year has exceeded the full-year 2025 level, the scale of tokenized real-world assets (RWA) has grown by over 60% year-to-date, and on-chain transaction activities have also reached a historical high, leading to a historical divergence between on-chain fundamentals and market valuation.

Jim Ferraioli, Director of Digital Asset Research at Charles Schwab, believes that Bitcoin's current trend still aligns with historical post-halving cycles. He stated that Bitcoin usually takes more than a year to surpass the low-efficiency miner production cost again, which is currently around $95,000, while the market's average holding cost is around $80,000. This implies that during the price rebound process, there may continue to be selling pressure from holders looking to break even.

Ferraioli believes that although the "four-year halving cycle" is not an absolute rule, this pattern has significantly influenced investor behavior. As the Bitcoin market gradually matures, the volatility of each cycle may decrease in the future.