1 savvy dollar buys the question, "Will the Federal Reserve raise the upper limit of the federal funds rate during the FOMC meeting in September 2026?"
According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy trader has placed a $1.6k bet on "Will the Fed raise the federal funds rate upper bound during the September 2026 FOMC meeting?" with an average buy-in probability of 28.1%. The current probability for "Yes" is 29.5%.
Trader 0x54e15a0a has bet $1.6k, with the most relevant category being Fed Rate, earning a net profit of $6.6k in this market. Out of 20 settled trades in this category, the trader has a win rate of 14/20 (70%), with 3 trades where the buy-in price was below $0.8 and the sell-out price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.201-$0.25), the median historical investment amount is $1.8k.
Reuters reported on the 2nd that the U.S. added only 57k nonfarm jobs in June, about half of what economists had expected, and the May job growth was also revised down. As a result, traders have pushed the probability of a July rate hike to below 20%, but still consider a September rate hike more likely. Federal funds futures indicate a 60% probability of a September rate hike, down from 75% before the job data release.
Both BofA and Deutsche Bank have recently placed their first rate hike bets on September, believing that in a backdrop of sticky inflation and the need for further policy tightening, September is a more feasible time window. Fed Chair Warsh has also emphasized publicly that he will not tolerate long-term inflation above 2% and hinted at continuing tightening measures when necessary, further strengthening market expectations for the policy path.
Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not betting on the actual outcome of the event, as they may have stop-loss or take-profit actions after opening positions at a certain time point.
Account:
0x54e15a0a77e3147ac78831804e5dde13cb589d5a
Total Investment: $1.6k
---------------------------------
Get early access to the future, follow @PolyBeats_Bot
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
