The Big Short Investor Michael Burry's Two-Year Shorting Accuracy Breakdown: Non-AI Strategy Nails Chinese Stocks Eight Times, Fails to Short NVIDIA Twice

BlockBeats News, July 3rd, "The Big Short" prototype Michael Burry stated today that he had shorted Micron Technology at $1051.87 on Wednesday, once again drawing market attention. According to data compiled by BlockBeats based on SEC 13F public position directions, Michael Burry's 11 publicly disclosed bearish options in the past two years had a hit rate of approximately 82%. However, a closer look reveals extreme differentiation: shorts on non-AI and Chinese concept stocks were all successful, with BABA, JD, PDD contributing to the majority of the success rate. In contrast, AI-related shorts had only a 1/3 success rate, with the most highlighted case being Nvidia's two failed short positions: during the 2025 Q1 holding period, NVDA rose by 46%, and another 4% in Q3, becoming the core source of all failures. The 2025 Q3 disclosed short on PLTR only saw a 2.9% decrease, barely hitting the mark, with an AI-related short success rate of only 33%.

The reason why the market generally feels that Michael Burry has been "off the mark recently" is because the most discussed topic is actually AI shorting behavior and the addition of new short positions on TSLA, AMAT, CAT, SOXX, MU in July 2026. The low public visibility of the Chinese concept and non-AI positions that elevated his overall success rate makes them easy to be overlooked in the public's impression. Additionally, since the 13F filings do not disclose option premiums, exercise prices, and expiration dates, directional hits do not equate to actual profits. However, the data clearly reveals that "The Big Short" Michael Burry's bearish judgment on Chinese concept and traditional targets is much stronger than in the AI race.

Michael Burry recently further expanded his short positions in the AI sector, shorting targets including Tesla, Applied Materials, Caterpillar, and the semiconductor ETF SOXX. Burry stated that South Korea's recent announcement of a large-scale chip industry cluster investment plan marks the "beginning of the end" of the AI frenzy, questioning whether the ongoing expansion of capital expenditures can bring about corresponding returns. Burry also continues to maintain a bearish view on Nvidia and is betting on SOXX's decline through put options. He had previously predicted a significant pullback in the prices of Nvidia and Palantir Technologies in the coming years, believing that there is a bubble risk in the current valuation of the AI sector.