The credibility of US employment data has been questioned, with the Non-Farm Payroll "Make or Break" Line: If the addition is below 150,000, the Fed is almost certain not to raise interest rates.

BlockBeats News, July 2nd. As the June non-farm payrolls report is about to be released (due to the Independence Day holiday moving the release to Thursday), there is a significant divergence in the market regarding the authenticity of the current U.S. employment data.

From March to May this year, the U.S. saw an average monthly job growth of 188,000, marking the strongest hiring spree in three years. However, industry insiders are concerned about potential "padding" in the data: one-off factors such as favorable spring weather for outdoor jobs and temporary hiring for the World Cup may have artificially inflated the numbers, and the trend of a "spike and retreat" in spring and summer employment seen in previous years.

Analysis indicates that June's job growth needs to meet or exceed Wall Street's consensus of 110,000 new jobs to confirm the sustainability of the labor market recovery. If the number significantly surpasses expectations, reaching 150,000 jobs or more, the Federal Reserve may consider a rate hike more seriously at this month's policy meeting; if it falls below this threshold, the Fed is almost certain to keep rates unchanged. Other key points of observation include:

· The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, flat for the fourth consecutive month, still at a historical low;

· The diversification of industries in hiring, moving away from the previous dominance of the healthcare sector;

· Year-on-year wage growth is expected to stay at around 3.5%, indicating no significant inflation pressure yet.

Analysts believe that despite the current warming of the labor market, the reliability and sustainability of the data still need further validation from June's non-farm payrolls report.