Bitunix Analyst: Hike Expectations Continue to Warm — Markets Await Confirmation from NFP and Central Bank Signals

BlockBeats News, July 1st, Global markets are extending their repricing of monetary policy.US May JOLTs job openings came in above expectations, indicating the labor market retains its resilience, while Federal Reserve official Hammack has stated that inflation remains above target and that a future rate hike cannot be ruled out. Rate futures now imply roughly an 80% probability of a September hike. Markets will next focus on this week's Non-Farm Payrolls report and Fed Chair Warsh's first public address at the global central bank forum — hoping to further confirm the Fed's latest views on inflation, employment, and its forward policy path.US May JOLTs job openings came in above expectations, indicating the labor market retains its resilience, while Federal Reserve official Hammack has stated that inflation remains above target and that a future rate hike cannot be ruled out. Rate futures now imply roughly an 80% probability of a September hike. Markets will next focus on this week's Non-Farm Payrolls report and Fed Chair Warsh's first public address at the global central bank forum — hoping to further confirm the Fed's latest views on inflation, employment, and its forward policy path.

Beyond the US, Japan has also become a focal point for global capital. Japan's latest Tankan survey showed both business confidence and inflation expectations improving in tandem, with market expectations for another BOJ rate hike this year continuing to build. Meanwhile, Japan's government has confirmed that no FX intervention occurred from late April through late May, and the yen remains oscillating near a four-decade low — a sign that the market's pricing of the US-Japan rate differential remains dominant. Should Japan accelerate its hiking pace, or should officials resume FX intervention, both could ripple through global carry trades and cross-market capital flows — bringing renewed volatility to the global liquidity environment.

In crypto, Bitcoin remains range-bound, with capital sentiment relatively cautious. The market's focus is no longer on any single economic data point — it is on whether the Fed will further confirm its high-rate posture, and whether Japanese monetary policy will alter the global cost of capital and liquidity allocation. Until these macro variables become clearer, risk assets are likely to remain in an event-driven volatility regime. The upcoming NFP print, Warsh's remarks, and shifting expectations around BOJ policy will all remain key focal points for the market ahead.