Opinion: Micron's Net Profit Expected to Surpass Apple Next Quarter, Capacity Expansion Will Eventually Lead to Supply-Demand Reversal

BlockBeats News, July 1st, Chief Market Strategist at Creative Planning, Charlie Bilello, pointed out that the surging demand for high-bandwidth memory in AI is disrupting the power structure of the tech industry. Charlie used a set of net profit comparison data to vividly illustrate this shift: Micron's net profit has grown 15 times in one year to around $28 billion, expected to surpass Apple's approximately $29.6 billion next quarter. Apple has long held absolute pricing power over suppliers due to its strong brand position. However, in the face of an AI-driven key component shortage, even the strongest consumer brand has to accept the pricing set by memory manufacturers. Bilello referred to a classic economic principle, reminding that "the cure for high prices is high prices," and this imbalance will not last forever, as high profits will eventually stimulate capacity expansion.

Micron has long lingered near the breakeven line, and in the past two years, profits have sharply risen along with the AI explosion curve, while Apple has maintained a high level but with gentle fluctuations. The essence of this power shift is that the massive demand for AI servers for HBM and DRAM has taken up the memory manufacturers' capacity and bargaining space, forcing end-device brands to bear the cost pass-through. The market's pricing of this is also rational—despite Micron's explosive profit growth, its valuation multiple remains much lower than Apple's, as investors are well aware of the memory industry's strong cyclicality, where high profits often signal the risks of future capital expenditure waves and supply-demand reversals.