Analysis: Long-Term Holders' Position Reached All-Time High, Signaling Bitcoin Cycle Might Have Bottomed Early

BlockBeats News, June 30th, Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten stated that the amount of Bitcoin held by Long-Term Holders (LTH) has reached a historical high. This indicator has historically corresponded to the market cycle bottom, implying that this Bitcoin cycle may bottom out earlier than in previous cycles.

According to Glassnode data, the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has reached about 14.7 million BTC, hitting a new all-time high, showing that seasoned investors still maintain strong confidence in holding. Klippsten believes that this trend indicates that the market bottom may appear earlier than expected.

However, there are different views as well. Jiang Zhuo'er, founder of Lebit Mining Pool, previously stated that Bitcoin may bottom out between October and December 2026. He believes that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) mNAV (market value-to-Bitcoin reserve net value multiple) usually leads Bitcoin's bottom by about 6 months. Currently, this indicator has dropped to 0.72, close to the 0.7 low point of the 2022 bear market. Therefore, he expects that this Bitcoin cycle bottom will be in the range of $42,000 to $44,000.

In addition, Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, stated that if the U.S. CLARITY Act is not passed this year, Bitcoin reserve companies like Strategy may continue to deleverage, further exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin prices. Galaxy Digital has also lowered the probability of the bill being legislated by 2026 to 50%, believing that the time window for the U.S. Senate to advance relevant legislation before adjourning in August is quite limited.