SemiAnalysis: Latest US Economic Data Riddled with Noise, Yet AI Infrastructure Continues to Thrive

BlockBeats News, June 29th, SemiAnalysis reported that the latest US economic data contains a significant amount of noise. The upward revision of Q1 GDP was mainly due to a decrease in imports. One-third of the May personal income growth came from one-time farm aid, while PCE inflation surge was driven by energy prices. The sharp decline in durable goods orders was due to a reversal in aircraft orders. All these special factors will mean-revert, and the overall economic landscape will undergo a transformation after stripping them out.

Tariff-induced goods inflation is a one-time price level shock that will exit from year-over-year data approximately 12 months later. However, consumer's actual purchasing power will be permanently reduced and will not recover with a decrease in the inflation rate. Goods inflation has currently exceeded service inflation, reflecting the transmission effect of tariffs.

SemiAnalysis believes that despite macro data fluctuations, AI capital expenditure is a real and sustained trend. Equipment and software contributed 1.55 percentage points to Q1 GDP, four times the contribution of consumers. Core capital goods orders grew by 1.6%. AI data center construction is rapidly increasing its share in the economy and will not mean-revert.