Goldman Sachs: U.S. Stock Market Correction Does Not Necessarily Mean a Peak, Technology Stock Weighting Has Become a Source of Market Pressure

BlockBeats News, June 29th - A Goldman Sachs strategist stated that the weakness in the U.S. stock market this week appears more like a structural adjustment dragged down by large-cap tech stocks, rather than a clear signal of a market top.

As of the end of last Friday's trading day, the S&P 500 index is still likely to fall by more than 1.5% this week. Nevertheless, the macro background facing the market is not entirely negative: oil prices fell by about 10% this week, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield dropped more than 10 basis points to 4.37%, May's core PCE inflation was broadly in line with expectations, and Micron's earnings also showed resilience in AI-related demand.

What is truly suppressing the index is the mega-cap tech stocks. Goldman Sachs stated that the seven major tech stocks generally fell 3% to 8% this week, and due to their high market cap weight in the S&P 500, the rise of other component stocks was unable to offset their drag. Meanwhile, market breadth has actually improved, with 8 of the 11 major industries posting gains this week, and the equal-weighted S&P 500 has outperformed the market-cap-weighted index so far this year.

This suggests that the market may be shifting from a trend dominated by "a few tech giants" to a more diversified sector rotation. However, Goldman Sachs also warned that the AI investment cycle remains one of the key risks investors are concerned about. Large internet companies are transitioning from a light-asset model to a capital-intensive model, and while the market has rewarded this transformation, it is increasingly focused on the sustainability of AI capital spending.

The report pointed out that there is no clear sign of a significant slowdown in AI capital spending in the market yet, but consensus expectations indicate that the intensity of capital investment may peak this year or next. Goldman Sachs also stated that the current scale of AI investment is approaching, and may even surpass, the peak of tech investment in the 1990s.

Goldman Sachs' conclusion is not to exit the market but to advise investors to continue to focus on assets with upward earnings momentum. This round of pullback seems more like a pressure release from a highly concentrated market rally rather than a confirmation of the end of the bull market.