Bitunix Analyst:Global Capital Waits for aNew Policy Signal—the Dollar and Energy Continue to Lead the Market's Rhythm

BlockBeats News, June 29th. This week, global markets formally enter a dense event window. The US Non-Farm Payrolls report, the ECB's Sintra Forum, and a joint appearance by the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank, and Bank of Canada chiefs will together shape how markets reprice global liquidity for the second half. The most-watched moment will be Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first international policy address. With multiple Fed officials continuing to deliver hawkish signals, markets have largely settled into the view that "higher rates for longer—or even another hike" remains the dominant possibility.

Meanwhile, the Middle East remains an important variable for risk sentiment. Although the US and Iran continue to advance ceasefire and strait negotiations, Iran has stated that the Strait of Hormuz will be under its full control for the next 30 days, and shipping companies have warned that mine clearing operations could take months—meaning the global energy supply chain remains exposed to significant uncertainty. At the same time, Saudi Arabia's upcoming announcement of its August Official Selling Price for crude will serve as an important indicator of energy demand and the global growth outlook.

On the capital-flow side, deeper structural shifts are emerging. Large sovereign wealth funds continue to lift their allocations to real assets such as energy and infrastructure—reflecting a broader global capital reorientation toward supply-chain security and asset resilience.

For crypto, the variable that truly matters is no longer a single economic data point—it is whether the dollar, rate expectations, and global liquidity can offer a new directional signal. If Warsh maintains a hawkish stance this week, NFP holds firm, and the dollar continues to strengthen, risk assets are likely to face short-term capital-reallocation pressure. Conversely, if policy signals begin to balance out, risk appetite has room to improve. Against the backdrop of an ongoing global cost-of-capital repricing, crypto will remain highly sensitive to macro policy and dollar dynamics in the near term.