Grayscale: Bitcoin Bear Market Has Two Possible Paths, Long-Term Bullish on the Future of Cryptocurrency

BlockBeats News, June 29th. According to the latest research report released by Grayscale, Bitcoin has retraced over 50% since its all-time high around $125,000 in October 2025, dropping below $60,000. The report believes that this recent decline is still within the cyclical pullback of Bitcoin's long-term upward trend, rather than a reversal of the long-term trend.

Grayscale pointed out that the recent pressure on Bitcoin is mainly influenced by multiple factors, including the expected shift in the Federal Reserve's policy towards hawkishness, market uncertainty about the legislative prospects of the "CLARITY Act," leverage asset-liability pressure in the Strategy, and investors' concerns about the potential security risks of quantum computing. With the nomination of hawkish Kevin Warsh by U.S. President Trump as the Federal Reserve Chair, the market has shifted from expecting rate cuts to expecting rate hikes within the year, weakening the investment thesis of Bitcoin as an anti-currency devaluation asset.

There are mainly two scenarios for Bitcoin's future: in the baseline scenario, the "CLARITY Act" smoothly passes the Senate, Strategy improves the balance sheet, and the Federal Reserve postpones rate hikes, indicating that Bitcoin may have approached the bottom of this cycle; in the pessimistic scenario, if the bill fails to pass within the year, digital asset financial firms continue to deleverage, and stubborn inflation forces the Federal Reserve to hike rates, the Bitcoin price could still further decline.

However, due to the relatively moderate increase in this bull market and the more stable institutional demand, it is expected that the retracement in this cycle will not repeat the historical peak decline of about 80%, and Grayscale expressed optimism about the long-term growth prospects of public blockchain and digital assets in the next decade.