Samson Mow Asserts Bitcoin has Bottomed Out, Analyst Community Divided on Post-Halving Outlook

BlockBeats News, June 28th, Jan3 CEO Samson Mow today asserted that the Bitcoin "bottom is in," with his core argument being: Bitcoin hit a then all-time high 37 days before the April 2024 halving, indicating an abnormal lead-up that suggests the traditional four-year halving cycle has accelerated, rendering the historically reliable time patterns obsolete. "Even if you believe in cycles, you should deduce that the cycle has accelerated."

However, the market is far from forming a consensus:

10x Research founder Markus Thielen believes the bottom is more likely around $55,000, with a time window between August and October;

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is more bearish, predicting Bitcoin to touch around $40,000 within six months;

Senior analyst James Van Straten points out that Bitcoin is currently testing the 200-week moving average, on-chain data suggests the $50,000 to $54,000 range may become the next key battleground, as in each major bear market cycle since 2011, Bitcoin has ultimately dropped below the realized price to establish the cycle bottom, a signal not yet present in the current cycle.