Analysis: The MVRV Ratio Curve predicts that a minor BTC rebound is imminent, with a low probability of testing $50,000.

BlockBeats News, June 28th — Crypto analyst Murphy used the "Post-Halving MVRV Z-Score" framework to analyze the current situation. The volatility of this cycle has been significantly compressed, with the highs not high enough and the lows not low enough. The current BTC price channel corresponds to an MVRV of about 1.12 to 1.30, translating to a BTC price range of $59,000 to $70,000. Murphy suggested that the short-term price is close to the lower band of the channel around $59,000, and is likely to experience a weak rebound or oscillation at the current level before July 23rd, with a low probability of dropping to $50,000. If there is a rebound, the price is not expected to exceed $69,000 to $70,000, corresponding to an MVRV of 1.30.

From a mid-term perspective, Murphy believes that the true bottoming retracement is most likely to occur on July 23rd or after August 23rd, following the time logic of the traditional four-year cycle, around September to October or a more critical turning point. In terms of price, Murphy explicitly stated that Bitcoin below $60,000 is considered cheap. The overall short-term outlook is not pessimistic, but there is no rush to bottom fish on a large scale. The current situation is more like a range-bound oscillation with weak rebounds. The period to be truly cautious about is post the end of July to August.