Opinion: Bitcoin UTXO Ratio Triggers First Bear Market Surrender Signal, Potentially Entering Bottoming Phase

BlockBeats News, June 28th, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin's Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) Profit Loss Ratio has dropped to the lowest level since this bear market cycle began, indicating that the market is entering a broader "surrender" phase. This is also the first time this indicator has sent out this signal since the beginning of this correction.

Darkfost pointed out that the current number of UTXOs sold at a loss has reached a significant level. Historically, this phase has often corresponded to the bottom area of a bear market and provided long-term investors with a good opportunity to allocate funds. The last time this indicator dropped to a similar level was in mid-2023 when the Bitcoin price briefly fell to around $26,000.

Another analyst, DurdenBTC, also stated that the UTXO bottom signal has been triggered. This indicator has successfully captured market bottoms since 2016. However, the true bottoming process still takes time, and short-term market sentiment may remain depressed.

Darkfost further stated that the Spend Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders is gradually entering the negative range, indicating that long-term holders are starting to capitulate. The current correction is mainly driven by a large inflow of Bitcoin from short-term holders to exchanges.

On-chain analytics firm Swissblock believes that Bitcoin has essentially completed the first stage of its decline and is currently in a bottom-building phase. The price is stabilizing, but market momentum remains weak.

Furthermore, due to the U.S. weekend airstrikes on Iranian targets, market risk aversion sentiment has intensified. Bitcoin briefly fell to $59,800 and then rebounded to around $60,100.