Super Data Week Ahead: NFP Early Release on Thursday, US-Iran Conflict Escalation, Month-End Rebalancing to Amplify Volatility Risk

BlockBeats News, June 28th. This week, the global market will face a highly complex situation with multiple overlapping factors: Super Data Week, Early Release of Non-Farm Payrolls, Institutions' End-of-Month End-of-Quarter End-of-Half-Year Portfolio Rebalancing, and a renewed escalation of US-Iran tensions, which may lead to a significant increase in market volatility.

On the geopolitical front, despite the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, the tense situation has not eased. On Saturday, the US military launched a second round of airstrikes against Iranian targets in response to Iran's downing of a Panamanian-flagged oil tanker, the "Kiku," carrying over 2 million barrels of crude oil. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard promptly launched missile and drone attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain, warning that any violations of the agreement would trigger a "devastating response." The risk in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated again, putting pressure on oil prices that had previously fallen to around $72. Deutsche Bank has warned that the market is overly optimistic about supply recovery, as the Kharg oil inventories have fallen below the level needed for system stability.

On the data front, due to the US Independence Day market holiday on July 4th, this month's Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released early on Thursday, July 2nd, with the market expecting an addition of 130,000 jobs in June. The data calendar is busy this week, including Tuesday's JOLTS Job Openings, Wednesday's ADP Employment and ISM Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone's flash CPI for June, with multiple data releases taking turns to impact the market. In addition, the May PCE released last week rose to 4.1% year-on-year, hitting a nearly three-year high, further solidifying the market's expectation of a Fed rate hike later this year.

On asset performance, the S&P 500 Index has risen more than 7% in the first half of the year, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has surged 85% from its March low, but the Nasdaq fell by over 4% this week. Gold failed to hold above $4100 under strong US data and inflationary pressure, yet a Kitco survey shows that both institutions and retail investors are mostly bearish. JPMorgan Chase raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 7200 points to 7800 points this week, but many institutions advise investors to remain cautious as they enter the second half of the year, waiting for buying opportunities created by market volatility.