1 Smart Money bought the <em>Crude Oil (CL)</em> option on whether it would touch $70 in July (LOW)

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a clever money placed a $738 bet on "Will Crude Oil (CL) touch $70 in July (LOW)?" with an average buy probability of 74.6%. The current probability of "Yes" is 53.6%.

0xd226cdb3 placed a $738 bet, and the most relevant category in this market is Commodities, with a net profit of $2700. Out of 30 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 24/30 (80%), with 14 trades having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.651-0.8), the median historical bet amount is $928.

Reuters reported on the 25th that crude oil shipments through the Hormuz Strait have risen to the highest level since the start of the Iran war on February 28. Kpler data shows that over just Wednesday and Thursday, over 20 million barrels of crude oil passed through the strait. Some vessels are avoiding the central channel due to mine risks and using an alternate route closer to the Oman side. A significant amount of oil previously trapped in the Persian Gulf is re-entering the international market, rapidly alleviating the anticipated supply shortage from the war period and directly pushing down oil prices.

MarketWatch reported today that Iraq has hinted at a possible OPEC exit if it does not get a higher production quota, while the UAE exited the organization in May. Robert Yawger, Mizuho's energy futures director, stated that if major oil-producing countries shift to market share competition and quickly release available capacity, CL could even drop to below $50 per barrel. While this extreme scenario may not fully materialize by the end of June, news of weakened OPEC production discipline will directly reduce the supply risk premium on CL, no longer considering $70 as a strong support.

Today's market analysis from The Wall Street Journal stated that NYMEX Crude Oil Futures CL front-month contract, after a significant overnight surge, fell again by 0.6% to $71.52 per barrel, with the market viewing this decline as a technical correction after the rebound. Despite Iran's attack on commercial ships and some vessels reversing course potentially limiting the drop, CL did not hold onto the previous day's rally from the risk events, indicating that the bearish trend has not been reversed.

Note: Based on their historical trading profile, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of events but may engage in profit-taking and stop-loss behavior at a certain point after opening a position.

Account:
0xd226cdb339ab6dab0e8f84d7531ecee0ea5335ac.
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