Serenity: Silicon Photonics Stocks' Recent Sharp Drop is Actually a Buying Opportunity, SIVE and AAOI Fundamentals Unchanged, Bullish on Mass Production Upside

BlockBeats News, June 26th — Facing the recent sharp corrections in the stock prices of Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE) and Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), Serenity made a contrarian statement, stating that the price drop actually made them "more bullish than ever before," and elaborated on the investment thesis for both companies.

Regarding SIVE, with a current market capitalization of approximately $1.9 billion, Serenity believes it plays a key role as a laser diode "bottleneck supplier" in the silicon photonics industry chain. Its partners include GlobalFoundries for reference lasers, Ayar Labs in the NVIDIA NVLink ecosystem for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) expansion, POET, and Juniper, among many other supercomputing suppliers, with a gross margin of around 60%.

The recent bearish reports in the Swedish media and the 15% share dilution were actually due to a Nasdaq listing fungible arrangement and merger authorization, rather than a deterioration in fundamentals. The approximately $140 million in convertible notes is considered a "drop in the ocean" for U.S. institutional investors. He believes that SIVE's prioritization of advancing the Nasdaq listing is the right strategic move to avoid interference from local media noise.

As for AAOI, with a current market capitalization of around $10 billion, the company expects to reach a monthly revenue of $471 million in the first half of 2027. Supercomputing manufacturers such as AMD are reportedly in negotiations for a Long-Term Agreement (LTA). Through the previous ATM stock issuance plan, it has raised approximately $1.4 billion in cumulative financing, with ample cash reserves.

Serenity likened the current situation to the trend of Nebius (NBIS) plummeting from $70 last year, eventually rebounding to over $250 as performance was realized. They believe that photonics stocks generally have higher volatility than other tech stocks and that currently, all that is needed is to wait for the production ramp data from the two companies to materialize.