1 Smart Coin purchased 「whether there was any day before June 30th where 60 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz」

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 29 minutes ago, a smart money entered $1000 on "No" for the question "Before June 30, will there be any day when 60 ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz?" with an average buy probability of 70.6%. The current "Yes" probability is 28.0%.

0x52071e89 entered $1000, and the best-performing category in this market is Trump, with a net profit of $6200. Out of 54 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 46/54 (85%), with 31 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.651-$0.8), the median of historical investment amounts is $181.

On June 25, The Guardian reported that there had been a doubling of ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, reaching the highest level since the end of February. MarketWatch also stated that oil tankers are being lured back into the Persian Gulf with high rents, with some large oil tankers seeing daily rents close to several times pre-conflict rates. On the same day, the Associated Press also reported that a Liberian oil tanker sailed out of the strait along a new route near Oman, with Maersk indicating that its Maersk Baltimore and another chartered vessel had left the strait.

However, from a threshold perspective, there are still significant barriers to meeting the amount required by this market. The Wall Street Journal, citing Kpler data, reported that on Monday, 27 oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz, decreasing to 14 on Tuesday, with a total of 37 over the weekend. Even though another group of commercial vessels reportedly confirmed the passage of 48 vessels on a recent day, it still falls below the 60-vessel threshold.

The Associated Press reported that the new route was coordinated by Oman and the International Maritime Organization. However, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard opposes routes that are not announced by Iran and has warned that vessels deviating from its approved route are "extremely dangerous and prohibited." Additionally, the strait still faces threats from sea mines, insurance costs, shipowner risk preferences, and statistical uncertainty due to AIS shutdowns. Captains also need to wait for notifications from coordinating bodies rather than being granted passage immediately.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not betting on the actual outcome of events and may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behavior at a certain point after opening positions.

Account:
0x52071e89ed7f68478a428fd65aed5dc572be686b.
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