Bitunix Analyst:On the Eve of the PCE Test,Global Assets Face Their Real Pricing Moment
BlockBeats News, June 25th - The global market's focal point is no longer whether the Middle East conflict escalates—it is whether, as energy risk gradually cools, US inflation will once again become the core variable dominating asset prices. With US-Iran technical talks advancing and Strait of Hormuz transit volumes rapidly recovering, the market's hedging tone has clearly softened. But capital has not returned to an easing narrative—instead, it is starting to reprice a higher cost-of-capital environment.
Markets are now intensely focused on the upcoming May PCE release. According to projections from major Wall Street institutions, both headline and core PCE are nearly unanimously expected to print higher than the prior month. The real concern is not energy prices—it is that core inflation remains highly sticky. If core prices continue to firm, it would mean the inflation problem has gradually shifted from a geopolitical shock to structural factors—increasing pressure on the Fed to maintain high rates, or even hike again.
Market pricing has already shifted visibly. US Treasury Secretary Bessent has reiterated US-dollar dominance, and publicly endorsed Warsh's approach of diluting forward guidance. This signals that the Fed may further reduce policy predictability, moving to data-driven decision-making and letting markets price rates on their own. From a flattening Treasury yield curve, to a persistently strong dollar, to synchronized declines in gold and silver, capital is reassessing the risk that the high-rate environment may persist longer than expected.
On another front, Micron's strong earnings drove a rally across the global semiconductor space, and TSMC is reportedly raising prices across its advanced-node offerings—reflecting that the AI infrastructure investment wave is still underway. Yet whether tech stocks and the AI supply chain can continue absorbing higher capital costs will be a critical watchpoint for the second half. The market is not lacking growth stories—it is assessing whether those growth stories are sufficient to offset higher discount rates.
For crypto, the largest near-term risk and opportunity both come from the PCE print itself. If inflation again exceeds expectations, hike bets could heat up further, drawing capital back to the dollar and short-end Treasury yields. Conversely, if inflation pressure begins to ease, risk assets could find some breathing room. The market's focus over the coming days will not be the Middle East—it will be whether the Fed has reason to pick up the hike tool again. When markets begin trading policy risk rather than war risk, the source of asset price volatility will fundamentally change.
