Serenity: A topic that usually prices in the market about 8 months in advance, focusing on storage, Neoclouds, photonics, and robotics

BlockBeats News, June 25th, Serenity's article stated that, based on personal experience, the market usually prices in a certain theme about 8 months in advance, unless the theme is related to space, robotics, or quantum. Serenity mentioned that, following this rule, their positioning in certain CPO Scale Up assets may have been premature by about 4 months.

In the field of photonics, the next-generation pluggable optical module (1.6T) opportunity is currently significant, with companies such as LITE, COHR, and Innolight; AAOI, JBL's 1.6T LRO, and other later-stage ramp-up targets may occur in the first half of 2027. Opportunities related to CPO Scale Out are expected in the second half of 2026, while NPO may serve as a bridging architecture from the second half of 2026 to 2027, and CPO Scale Up opportunities may arise in the second half of 2027.

Serenity mentioned that storage remains a huge bottleneck, with HBM3e currently ramping up, involving companies like Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix; HBM4 is also nearing the mass production stage, with HBF possibly appearing in 2027. They believe that storage-related companies are currently in the midst of a bottleneck and may continue to experience compounded growth.

Regarding glass substrates, it is expected that SKC Absolics will start early ramp-up in the second half of 2026, and the real opportunity may emerge from the second half of 2027 to 2028. The humanoid robot supply chain is still in a very early stage, but with Elon Musk's optimistic outlook for Tesla's Optimus, and the volume production of Chinese humanoid robot companies like Ubtech and AGI Bot, the market may not wait too long to start pricing in.

On the Neoclouds front, the current period may be a construction phase for many companies, and some industry leaders are expected to see a turning point in their Q4 2026 earnings reports. Serenity mentioned that they may reallocate positions around storage, Neoclouds, photonics, and robotics in the future, placing more emphasis on targets that align with the approximately 8-month pricing window or cover multiple themes simultaneously.