Bitunix Analyst:The Cooling War Is Only the Beginning—What Markets Are Truly Starting to Trade Is a"Higher Cost of Capital"World

June 24—The global market's focus continues to rotate from the Middle East conflict toward asset repricing in the post-war era. With US-Iran negotiations advancing, the Strait of Hormuz gradually resuming transit, and the US Congress historically passing a resolution restricting military action against Iran, market concerns over energy supply disruption have visibly declined. Yet the risk has not disappeared—it has shifted from geopolitics toward inflation, fiscal pressure, and the cost of capital.

The Strait of Hormuz has now entered a "thawing phase": UAE crude exports have recovered to roughly 85% of pre-war levels, tankers have re-entered the Gulf to load, and the energy supply chain is rapidly normalizing. Oil prices have eased as a result, but shipping freight rates remain elevated—a sign that the global supply chain has not fully returned to its pre-conflict state. At the same time, US Treasury Secretary Bessent has emphasized the importance of critical supply-chain autonomy and energy security—indicating that the global economy will continue to move toward a "safety first" rather than "efficiency first" structure.

On another front, US June manufacturing data came in above expectations, but factory employment has fallen to a six-year low—reflecting that structural divergence persists across the economy. Market focus has also shifted back to the Fed's policy trajectory. Whether it is Warsh's policy stance, Bank of America's upgraded hike expectations, or the market's repricing of inflation stickiness, investors are now thinking about "higher rates for longer"—or even "another hike"—rather than the timing of cuts.

For crypto, this means the largest near-term influence is no longer the Middle East conflict itself, but changes in the global liquidity environment and risk appetite. Lower war risk helps reduce safe-haven demand, but if Treasury yields stay elevated and the Fed continues to deliver hawkish signals, capital is likely to prefer the dollar and fixed-income assets. The key variables to watch will gradually shift from whether the Strait of Hormuz opens, to inflation data, the Fed's policy direction, and whether the global cost of capital continues to rise. When markets begin trading the price of capital rather than headlines about war, risk assets will face a fresh round of testing.