Low Float High FDV Metaverse Faces Major Challenge in July as Lock-up Shares Are Released, Tradable Float Surges 2.5x, Adding Approximately HK$73.4 Billion in New Chips

BlockBeats News, June 23. During the initial public trading of China's AI leader Horizon Robotics (02513.HK), there were approximately 17.35 million tradable shares. As a stock with low circulation and a high FDV, Horizon Robotics will see its stock unlocking on July 8. According to current public information, the most certain batch of shares to be unlocked on July 8 is around 25.68 million shares held by cornerstone investors. The 11 cornerstone investors subscribed a total of about HK$2.984 billion at an issue price of HK$116.2, equivalent to around 25.68 million shares, accounting for approximately 5.76% of the total share capital. After July 8, the tradable shares will increase from 17.35 million to around 43.03 million, nearly 2.5 times the original amount. Based on the intra-day high on June 22, the 25.68 million shares correspond to a book value of approximately HK$73.4 billion, signaling a potential reshaping of the supply and demand of shares.

As of June 22, Horizon Robotics' closing market value was approximately $137 billion, with an expected full-year revenue of around $100 million in 2025, resulting in an estimated PS ratio of around 1280 times. In comparison, OpenAI, with a disclosed revenue of around $13 billion and a valuation of $730 billion in 2025 according to the Financial Times, has a ratio of roughly 56 times, significantly lower than Horizon Robotics' 1280 times. Applying OpenAI's multiple, Horizon Robotics' "reasonable" market value is approximately between $4 billion and $8 billion. Even if we use JPMorgan Chase's forecasted 534% revenue growth in 2026 (about $640 million), applying OpenAI's multiple would only support a market value of $25 billion to $50 billion. Horizon Robotics' current price is supported by scarcity, imagination, and capital structure.

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