SemiAnalysis: AI Demand Drives Up Chip Base Prices, Unit Compute Cost on the Rise

BlockBeats News, June 23rd. Semiconductor and AI research firm SemiAnalysis published an article stating that in the short term, AI demand is outpacing the cost reduction rate brought by Moore's Law. Between 2001 and 2020, Moore's Law drove a 52% decline in computer and semiconductor import prices. However, with the significant increase in AI demand, computer and semiconductor import prices rose by 3.6% in May, a 14.4% year-on-year increase. This increase is far from historical records, and the term "fastest in history" alone is no longer sufficient to describe it.

The import prices have been adjusted for hedonic quality, meaning they already account for chip speed and capacity improvements. Therefore, under the influence of Moore's Law, these prices typically decrease over time. However, the current chip shortage is truly driving up these hedonically adjusted prices, indicating that the market is willing to pay a higher price per unit of computing power, not just a higher price for better chips. Import prices are calculated pre-tariff, so these price hikes reflect the pre-tariff baseline prices, not the result of tariff surcharges.