Analysis: Bitcoin's current rebound is driven by selling exhaustion rather than new demand, and concerns about the Strategy in the market still persist

BlockBeats News, June 17th. The market widely expects that the first FOMC meeting after Kevin Warsh's assumed appointment as Federal Reserve Chair will maintain the interest rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, stated that the key message of this Fed meeting is likely to be "stability rather than a shift." She believes that if oil prices are stable and the Fed signals neutrality, BTC may trade in the range of $64,000 to $68,000 in the near term; if Warsh unexpectedly leans hawkish, BTC may retreat to $62,000 to $63,000.

A Bitfinex analyst stated that BTC has rebounded by about 13.5% from the June 5th low of $59,200, but this rebound is more due to seller exhaustion and macro pressure easing rather than new buying. The institution mentioned that the BTC rebound has stalled below the quarterly open price of $68,266 and currently resembles a relief rally within a range rather than the start of a new trend. Bitfinex also noted that open BTC futures contracts peaked over $90 billion in October 2025 and had fallen to around $42.6 billion by the end of May, without significant rebuilding during the rebound; the funding rate has turned positive again, indicating leveraged longs re-entering, but spot demand remains weak.

Concerns regarding Strategy persist. QCP stated that BTC has underperformed compared to broader risk assets, partly due to market concerns that Strategy may need to continue selling BTC to pay dividends. Strategy previously repurchased $1.5 billion of 2029 convertible senior notes, then raised about $200 million by selling MSTR shares and continued to buy BTC, extending its cash runway to pay STRC dividends for approximately 7.5 months. Bitfinex pointed out that STRC hit a new low at $91.79 on June 16th, down over 8% from the $100 face value, indicating weakening corporate treasury demand. Last week, Strategy only added 1,587 BTC, with a purchase size of about $100 million, far below the peak of several billion in financing during its accumulation period.

Bitfinex stated that the current base scenario is for BTC to remain in a range between the $60,000 support level and the quarterly open price of $68,266. To confirm a breakout, continuous ETF inflows, STRC returning to a $100 face value, stable open futures contracts during price increases, and BTC closing above the quarterly open price are needed. If the daily chart falls back below $60,000 and the $59,200 low, BTC may further decline to around $54,000 near the realized price.