Bitunix Analyst:The US-Iran Deal and Oil Drop Are Only the Prologue—Risk Assets Enter the Ultimate Test of aTrue"Higher-for-Longer"Era

June 17—The global market's central narrative is shifting from "the Middle East war is ending" toward "asset repricing in the post-war era." Details of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding continue to emerge, including the lifting of oil export restrictions, the unfreezing of frozen assets, and a planned private investment fund of up to $300 billion—and markets are already starting to price in the possibility of Iran's return to global energy and capital markets. However, the actual pace of Strait of Hormuz recovery remains uncertain: European allies are cautious on demining and escort operations, and shipping companies broadly believe a full return to normal transit will take weeks or longer. Geopolitical risk has declined, but it has not yet disappeared.

Energy markets are already reflecting this shift. With the US potentially allowing Iran to immediately resume oil exports, approximately 68 million barrels of stranded Iranian crude are now waiting to re-enter the market—and with potential expiry of the Russian oil exemption, the global energy supply structure is being restructured. In the near term, increased Iranian output should help lower oil and transportation costs; but if Russian exports become restricted again, energy markets could see a new supply-demand tug-of-war. This is why gold demand has not visibly cooled despite peace expectations—the World Gold Council survey shows central banks continuing to accumulate gold reserves, reflecting that long-term defensive demand against geopolitical and global debt risk remains unchanged.

At the same time, global central bank policy is showing clear divergence. The Bank of Japan has hiked to a 31-year high of 1%, while simultaneously announcing it will halt further reduction of its bond purchases next year. The Reserve Bank of Australia paused after consecutive hikes. Major central banks are now entering a new phase: "higher rates for longer, but avoid sharp liquidity contraction." The market's true focus, however, is now squarely on tonight's first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Whether from Citadel Securities, academic surveys, or market pricing, expectations are gradually shifting from rate cuts to renewed hike risk. In other words, what markets traded over the past two years was the timeline of cuts—what they are now beginning to trade is the possibility of a rising cost of capital.

What stands out, however, is that risk assets continue to attract capital even as hawkish expectations rebuild. SpaceX has completed a $60 billion acquisition of Anysphere and briefly surpassed Microsoft and Amazon to become the world's fourth-largest company by market cap. AI, space technology, and mega-cap tech capex continue to accelerate. But this is also raising concerns about an imbalance between valuations and liquidity. With credit markets still at extremely tight spreads and tech firms able to finance at very low cost, high rates have yet to truly constrain risk-asset valuations.

For crypto, the biggest variable is no longer the Middle East—it is whether Warsh will reduce forward guidance and redefine financial conditions going forward. If the Fed only holds rates high while allowing credit to keep expanding, market liquidity could continue to support risk-asset performance. But if future policy combines balance-sheet reduction with credit tightening, tech stocks, AI plays, and crypto could all face renewed valuation-reset pressure. On the surface, markets are trading the peace dividend—in reality, they are waiting for the Fed to determine the direction of the next round of global liquidity. BTC's performance will continue to reflect markets' true read on the future cost of capital and liquidity trajectory.