Bernstein: South Korea's Semiconductor Equipment Import Diverges, AI Storage Investment Still Ongoing

BlockBeats News, June 16th, Bernstein analysts, including David Dai, stated in a report released on June 15th that South Korea's semiconductor equipment import in May decreased by 5% month-on-month, but the year-to-date growth rate further increased to 39% on a year-on-year basis. The firm believes that the import data is strongly correlated with the combined capital expenditure of Samsung and SK hynix. Although the capital expenditure of both companies declined in the first quarter, this mainly reflects seasonal factors and the pace of previous infrastructure investment. Subsequent spending is expected to rebound.

The report indicates that South Korea's import of lithography equipment from the Netherlands reached 928 million euros in May, a 28% increase month-on-month and a approximately 150% increase year-on-year, marking the second highest level in a quarter since records began. Bernstein estimates that ASML's second-quarter system sales in Korea were around 2.31 billion euros, more than double compared to the same period last year. Analysts stated that this momentum may be supported by DRAM capacity expansion and the acceleration of the 1c node introduction, the latter requiring higher intensity of lithography equipment.

Testing equipment is also showing positive signals. Korea's import of testing machines from Japan and Malaysia increased by 103% year-on-year in May and 5% month-on-month. Bernstein's regression model shows that Advantest's second-quarter sales in Korea may increase by 84% compared to the previous quarter, significantly higher than the market's expectation of a 3% overall revenue growth.

However, not all equipment vendors are seeing equally strong data. Korea's import of wafer fab equipment related to Tokyo Electron decreased by 27% in May. Bernstein expects that the company's second-quarter sales in Korea may decline by 15% compared to the previous quarter, below the market's expectation of flat revenue.

Bernstein maintains a "Outperform" rating for ASML, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Samsung Electronics, and SK hynix. The report suggests that the storage investment cycle driven by AI is still being transmitted upstream to the equipment chain, with lithography, testing, and advanced DRAM expansion showing the most prominent prosperity.