Energy Shock Not Over, Multiple Investment Banks Warn of Third Quarter Oil Price Rebounding Above $90

BlockBeats News, June 15th. As the US-Iran conflict showed signs of easing, the global energy market briefly stabilized. However, several investment banks and institutions have warned that the aftermath of the energy shock is far from over, and geopolitical risk premiums may persist for an extended period of time.

Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ Bank, stated that the resumption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz still faces real obstacles such as the risk of mines and ship detentions. It may take several weeks or even months for shipping to return to pre-conflict levels. He pointed out that until the supply chain is fully normalized, the oil market will struggle to quickly fill the gap.

Westpac believes that global inventories underwent significant depletion during the strait blockade, and the subsequent restocking pressure will further exacerbate market tightness.

Bart Melek, Head of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities, expects that even if shipping returns to normal immediately, the global oil market may still face a stock shortfall of about 800 million barrels until November this year. He noted that the current oil price levels are still insufficient to balance future supply and demand.

He also predicted that oil prices have a high probability of rising to above $90 per barrel in the third quarter and may trigger a chain reaction of inflation.

Willem Sels, Chief Investment Officer at HSBC Private Bank, stated that this round of energy shock has had spillover effects on vulnerable parts of the global economy, particularly evident in regions such as South Asia. High oil prices may continue to pressure the recovery of fragile economies.

Analysts generally believe that despite the easing of the conflict, the uncertainty surrounding the risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz and supply recovery will keep the international oil market in a state of high volatility and risk premium.