Market Bets on US-Iran Breakthrough Drive Risk Asset Rebound, Oil Plunges, Rate Cut Expectations Advance
BlockBeats News, June 15th. President Trump of the United States announced that the US and Iran have reached a peace agreement framework, and plan to officially sign it on June 19th. The agreement includes arrangements such as lifting the US military blockade at sea and promoting the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, global market risk sentiment has significantly improved.
Oil prices experienced a sharp decline, with Brent crude falling by about 5% to around $82, a cumulative drop of about 33% from its high point in March. Analysts pointed out that if maritime shipping resumes in the strait, it will directly alleviate the expected global energy supply crunch.
The stock market rallied in sync, with major global stock indices generally rising. US Nasdaq futures surged by about 2% in pre-market trading. Risk assets rebounded across the board, with Bitcoin briefly breaking through $66,000, representing a 2.7% increase in 24 hours. Gold prices also rose by nearly 3%, climbing above $4,330.
In the interest rate market, investors currently widely expect the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range at the upcoming FOMC meeting, and have largely stopped pricing in further rate hikes for the rest of the year. The first rate cut is now anticipated to be delayed until early 2027.
However, analysts remind that the current situation still holds a high level of uncertainty, including whether the Middle East situation will truly ease, whether the 60-day ceasefire framework can be transformed into a long-term agreement, and the progress of subsequent negotiations, all of which could trigger market volatility.
Technically, although Bitcoin has rebounded from the $60,000 support level, it is still within a descending channel structure. The $68,900 and $80,000 areas above form the main resistance zone, and the short-term trend still depends on changes in macro risk sentiment and liquidity.
