Citrini Research: Short-Term Volatility Expected in US Stock Bull Market, Anticipates Prolonged Downturn This Time

BlockBeats News, June 15th, Citrini Research, the institution behind the "AI Doomsday Report," has released its latest macro research report. The report indicates that the U.S. economy is robust but not overheated, inflation pressure is expected to ease, and the stock market will continue to rise with fluctuations under the new Fed chair, the "echo impact" of the Iran conflict on oil, and the maturity of AI infrastructure.

Citrini believes that the market is currently in a never-ending market of "thematic momentum and macro environment." "We will oscillate between periods of strong stock performance (largely driven by artificial intelligence) and brief periods of volatility, which are attributed to macroeconomic concerns (at least superficially)." Even though interest rate volatility was the initial catalyst, the U.S. stock market sell-off was not surprising and was long anticipated. Previously, the stock market had risen for seven consecutive weeks. The sell-off this time was mainly concentrated in the technology sector, especially hardware or momentum stocks. All indicators show that tech stocks are severely overbought, to the point where a slight negative factor can trigger a collapse. The report expects the decline to last longer, but ultimately, it occurs against a macro background that is much more optimistic than many investors believe.

The report states that recent labor data is considered to overstate economic resilience, the market's pullback is a normal cleansing due to excessive leverage, the fundamentals support a melt-up before the end of summer and more frequent 10-15% pullbacks.

Citrini Research, a research institution with significant market influence, previously released a report in February this year proposing the concept of a "global intelligence crisis," warning that AI may trigger a "race to the bottom" for knowledge-based jobs, disrupting the industry and credit chain built around white-collar productivity. This report led to a subsequent major drop in U.S. stocks.