Analysis: BTC long-term holders still have the ability to create short-term selling pressure spikes, but their long-term influence has diminished compared to the past

BlockBeats News, June 14th - Analyst Darkfost stated that according to on-chain data, Bitcoin's Long-Term Holders (LTH, holding period over 6 months) are exhibiting a dual nature of short-term activity and long-term holding. The inflow of Bitcoin into exchanges by LTHs in the short term is still higher than normal - when LTHs transfer Bitcoin to exchanges, it mostly indicates an upcoming sale. The definition of an "extreme sell-off event" is a period where the daily inflow to exchanges is at least 5 times the annual average level. Such signals have recently appeared, indicating that LTHs still have the ability to create sudden selling pressure in the short term.

However, looking at a longer time frame, the annual average inflow of Bitcoin to exchanges by LTHs has been consistently decreasing. Although there has been a slight rebound from around 630 coins per day in early May to over 800 coins per day recently, it is still at the lowest level since records began in 2015. The analyst believes that this trend suggests that LTHs are increasingly inclined to long-term holding, which may also be related to the launch of ETFs and changes in the holder composition with the entry of institutional participants.

In conclusion, although LTHs can still generate periodic concentrated selling pressure in the short term, their market influence in the medium to long term has significantly weakened, no longer dominating the market as in past cycles.