1 clevermoney purchased a smart contract: "Will Ukraine regain control of Crimea before December 31st?"

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a clever money has wagered $5000 on "Will Ukraine reclaim Crimea territory by December 31st?", with an average buying probability of 14.0% and current "Yes" probability at 9.5%.

0x1d5ce0a2 has wagered $5000, with the top related category in this market being Geopolitical, achieving a net profit of $18,300. Out of 146 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 75/146 (51%), with 52 trades meeting the criteria of buying below $0.8 and selling above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.051-$0.2), the historical median investment amount is $208, making this wager 23.9 times the median.

The market will settle as "Yes" if the ISW map marks any part of Crimea as under Ukrainian control by the end of this year, or if Ukraine gains control of a portion of Crimean territory through negotiation.

Today, the Associated Press reported that Ukraine has recently carried out intensive strikes on the fuel supply system to Crimea, including refineries, oil depots, pipelines, fuel tanker fleets, and the supply routes from the Russian-occupied Azov Sea coast to Crimea, leading to the most severe fuel crisis in Crimea since its annexation in 2014.

In recent years, Ukraine has demonstrated its ability to strike deep targets in Crimea: the Black Sea Fleet was forced to relocate, the Kerch Bridge was attacked multiple times, and ammunition depots and airports have been damaged. However, Ukrainian ground forces or control structures have not entered Crimea.

Zelenskyy has recently pushed for a direct meeting with Putin, proposing a comprehensive ceasefire, a POW exchange, and the return of civilian children during negotiations; the UK, France, and Germany are also pushing for direct Russia-Ukraine talks. However, Putin rejected Zelenskyy's meeting proposal in early June and reaffirmed Russia's war objectives. Currently, European efforts are focused more on achieving a ceasefire and restarting negotiations, rather than signaling Russia's willingness to return part of Crimea.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event, as they may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss strategies after opening a position at a certain time.

Account:
0x1d5ce0a272ba0d3340fe1daba63478a06c1d55df.
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