Berenberg: 2026 World Cup Will Become Key Catalyst for Prediction Markets, Expected to Bring $5 billion to $10 billion Transaction Volume Growth

BlockBeats News, June 11th – A Bernstein analyst stated today that the 2026 FIFA World Cup opening in North America could become the biggest catalyst for trading volume that the prediction market industry has seen to date. Bernstein expects that this World Cup will bring in over $30 billion in incremental trading volume to the prediction market, driving consumer prediction market transaction volume up by $50 billion to $100 billion. The analyst believes that this World Cup, expanded to 48 teams, will feature 104 matches, representing an approximately 60% increase in the number of matches compared to a regular World Cup.

Bernstein stated that the 2026 World Cup could prove that the prediction market has permanently surpassed election cycles and niche political contracts. The institution previously projected that the annual trading volume of the prediction market would grow from around $51 billion in 2025 to $1 trillion by 2030, with the 2026 trading volume expected to reach $240 billion. Bernstein believes that DraftKings is the clearest overall beneficiary of this World Cup. Additionally, Bernstein stated that Robinhood will launch its CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, Rothera, in partnership with Susquehanna, coinciding with the World Cup opening. Bernstein expects the prediction market to be the biggest single driver of Robinhood's incremental revenue in 2026. The institution forecasts that Robinhood's prediction market annualized revenue will increase from $415 million in the first quarter of 2026 to around $586 million by the end of the year, a 286% year-on-year increase, accounting for approximately 17% of its transaction-based revenue.

Regarding Coinbase, Bernstein noted that its prediction market business is expanding faster. In March 2026, Coinbase's prediction market annualized revenue exceeded $100 million, achieving this milestone just two months after launch, making it one of the fastest-growing product lines in company history. Coinbase will offer World Cup contracts through a partnership with Kalshi. Bernstein also pointed out that the overall trading volume for the prediction market in May was around $31.2 billion, a 5% increase compared to the previous month. Kalshi saw a 21% month-on-month increase to $17.9 billion, capturing a market share of approximately 57%; meanwhile, Polymarket's global trading volume decreased by 14.8% to $7.1 billion during the same period.