Goldman Sachs Responds to SemiAnalysis' Stock Market Plunge Report: Acknowledges Short-Term Capacitor Output (CPO) Underperformance, But Confirms 800V Mass Production on Track

BlockBeats News, June 10th. Today, Morgan Stanley responded to the SemiAnalysis research report that triggered a significant US stock market pullback yesterday. Morgan Stanley agreed with SemiAnalysis's view that CPO's short-term volume did not meet expectations but still maintained a bullish outlook on CPO's explosive growth after 2028. Additionally, Morgan Stanley explicitly refuted the claim that 800V mass production is postponed until 2028. Supply chain research indicates that 800V cabinets will still proceed as planned in the second half of 2026. Yesterday, the independent research firm SemiAnalysis released a research report stating that two key technology paths for AI data centers experienced significant delays, which was identified as one of the main reasons for the major pullback in US AI industry stocks yesterday.

Regarding CPO, Morgan Stanley's stance aligns closely with SemiAnalysis—its calculation shows that the global shipments of optical engines in 2027 will only be between 6 to 7 million units, much lower than the market's general expectation of 20 to 30 million units. The core constraints originate from TSMC's SoIC yield being only 50%-60% and downstream assembly yield as low as 20%-50%, causing manufacturing bottlenecks, and short-term sentiment will continue to be under pressure. However, Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight rating on key CPO targets such as TSMC, believing that the period from 2026 to 2028 will be a transitional phase where pluggable optical modules, CPO/NPO, and copper interconnect coexist, with the real explosive growth of CPO beginning in 2028.

On the issue of 800V DC power cabinets, Morgan Stanley's position is in stark contrast to SemiAnalysis. According to Morgan Stanley's supply chain research, the 800V mass production process has not been interrupted. NVIDIA announced at the Taipei GTC conference that 800V cabinets will be ready for mass production by the third quarter of 2026, and Delta Electronics is expected to be the first independent manufacturer to mass-produce 800V cabinets, with the first batch of products expected to be delivered to leading North American hyperscalers in the fourth quarter of 2026. The fundamental disagreement between the two reports lies in the direction of the ±400V DC scheme. SemiAnalysis believes that ±400V will coexist with 800V in the long term, while Morgan Stanley's research shows that major cloud players have shifted their R&D focus from ±400V to 800V. This disparity will directly impact the competitive landscape of the power supply chain and supplier positions. The initial shipments from Delta in Q4 2026 and the year-end orders for the ±400V sidecar will serve as the ultimate basis for evaluating the judgments of both firms.