1 Smart Money bought a binary option on whether Crude Oil (CL) will touch $85 (LOW) before July.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy investor placed a $35.5k bet on "Will Crude Oil (CL) touch $85 before July? (LOW)," with an average buy-in probability of 60.3%. Currently, the "Yes" probability stands at 74.5%.

Address 0xe734e7bf invested $35.5k, with Oil being the top-related market segment, resulting in a net profit of $214k. Out of 121 settled trades in this segment, the win rate is 60/121 (50%), with 29 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.551-$0.7), the median historical investment amount is $17.0k.

On June 9, oil prices plummeted by about 3%, with WTI Crude Oil dropping $3.10, a 3.4% decrease, settling at $88.20, marking the lowest since May 29. Brent also fell below the 100-day moving average support level. This decline occurred after Israel and Iran agreed to pause direct attacks.

Reuters' market analysis today stated that despite the U.S. striking Iranian targets again and renewed tensions in Iran and the region, WTI only rose to around $88.80 and Brent to about $92.11. Another market report shows WTI at around $88.97 and Brent at about $92.29. Even in case of a U.S.-Iran escalation, WTI has not reclaimed $90 and stabilized, indicating significant resistance above in the oil market. Traders have not priced the situation as a full-blown supply disruption. If the next development shifts to negotiations or shipping resumes, $85 could easily become a short-term test level.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of events but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss actions at certain points after opening a position.

Account:
0xe734e7bf7cfb9e464681f71822f6c2f6be514f0c

Total Investment: $35.5k
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